I am sorry I don’t get the iPhone media frenzy. What gets my goat is that people have gone ahead and declared this to be the “before iPhone” and “after iPhone” era. I think they are smoking pot.
Let’s put things in perspective. Apple expects to sell about a million iPhones in 2008. That’s a good number. But then Nokia sold about half a million phones in just one day in India alone (see news item here). Well, you might say that this is not a fair comparison. You are comparing apples with oranges. After all iPhone costs $500 and the bestseller Nokia phone in India, Nokia 1100, is only $30. It’s not about volume; it’s about impact. Look how iPod revolutionized the online music industry; iPhone will build on that legacy. It will have an industry shaping impact. Really?
First let me debunk the music myth. Apple sold about a $1b of music through iTunes in 2006. On the other hand, ringtones/ringbacks on plain-old-humble cellphones sold at least six, yes, six times as much (according to Gartner).
The fact is that these plain-old-humble cellphones are not just revolutionizing music; they are also changing television. Just look at American Idol. Do you think that format would have happened without SMS? SMS voting using plain-old-humble cellphones has spawned a multi-billion dollar genre worldwide.
Even FM radio is seeing an uptick due to the plain-old-humble cellphone. In fact in places like India a large part of the audience and advertiser growth of FM radio is attributable to the low-end phone with built-in FM radios. This trend is sure to spread to other markets.
Let’s face up to the new reality of our era that revolutions now come from the bottom of the pyramid. Gone are the days when a cool Silicon Graphics workstation could be touted as a harbinger of industry change.
Please don’t misunderstand me – I have no doubt that iPhone will be a great product. Let’s admire it as one would a new 7-series BMW. But please let’s not suggest that it’s going to change the car industry. If that’s the kind of impact you are after, better look for something like the Tata $2000 car.
Let me confess I am an Apple fan at the outset. I have a Mac (for the last 6 months) and cant seem to have enough of it and cant even think of moving back to a Windoze PC.
And while I do agree that iPhone’s have been hyped beyond compare (a recent parallel, for those following Indian Movie Industry, is the launch of the highest budget Indian movie, ‘Sivaji’ - a regional movie but which is creating waves all over India, even though a fabricated one, and doing quite good I must add) there is a reason why Apple triggers such passion from its users. The name of the game - ‘KISS’ (keep it simple stupid). The elegance of the Mac UI is the way it readily exposes what little one needs to do more than 90% of the time (and sometimes thus frustrating the power users, but then they are a very small subset). And add to it, the wonderful way it packages just about everything (even the box in which the ipod comes, the cables, the manuals, etc), just keeps adding to its beauty.
Comparing it a 7-series BMW is apt, only for the fact, this is a 2000$ BMW. Yes. How many people in this world can even think of buying a BMW. But many many millions can dream/and still buy a 200$ king of MP3 players (or now 500$ phone). Its like fashion attire for the rest-of-us. The fact that owning a iPOD (and now a iPhone) makes u and me feel like kings (without having to stop eating and selling your house), is probably one of the biggest reasons people go for it.
Everyone wants to be king. And most Apple products typically tend to give them this feeling.
:-)
Kumar Rangarajan
Senior Architect
S7 Software Solutions
Kumar, I see where you are coming from. I can see a hardcore apple fan talking here. However the point here is not about Apple or iPhone as a “quality” product, its about whether iPhone will “revolutionize” the mobile phone industry and will start off a new era. Though I’m waiting to get my hands on iPhone asap and taste the first blood of it, I dont think it will kick off a new era in mobile phone industry as iPod did for music industry. There are Nokias, Sonys and Samsungs who are already been innovating in this space and already provides all of the features that iPhone promise to deliver.
Its Nokia that has revolutionized the mobile phone scenario atleats in India if not at world level by providing choices of features/price at all level which has enabled stinky rich as well even a daily earner in remote village to have one with the pride. You can easily talk about “Pre-Nokia” and “Post-Nokia” era easily in India.
While iPhone may not revolutionzie the mobile phone industry, I feel it will probably continue its dominance in music industry by adding additional feature of “mobile phone” to iPod.
Phaniraj Raghavendra
S7 Software Solutions.
“Where Migration Meets Innovation”
hmmmmmm…
Somehow this reminds me of the Segway hype by Dean Karmen. But Apple has always delivered something quite interesting for it’s hype.
Bottom line - lot of hype, but…
Sharad,
While I agree with you on the volume bit (- fortune at the bottom..) and the revolutionizing bit, you must agree, looking at the ubiquity of the iPod in India - that the iPhone does have the potential to disrupt things…
This has two fallouts - it should drive the costs of other smartphones down (so you might see this benefiting people in India) and the second more important perspective - present a better experience for the cellphone user..
Regards…
What’s interesting for me is to see if the itunes software service model for the mp3 market will work for the mobile industry.
Apple has designed the iphone to be able to view all kinds of multimedia - video especially. and the success of the iphone will be determined by the services it will offer. Expect to see photo and video sharing and many other such content driven services.
Nokia also is re structuring itself to be a service provider and not just a phone manufacturer!
and thats the interesting battle to watch. I agree that the device is not going to create any waves - they will have to come up with many different models with different features, since “one size does not fit all” in the mobile phone market.
Dev.
Nokia has re
Sharad
On your comment about changing the industry….depends on what you mean by “change”. The ipod certainly revolutionised the concept of portable listening given that mini mp3 players existed long before that but never got the attention they probably deserved. Sure Nokia 1100 revolutionised the industry by getting a trucker to own a phone, but thats a different sort of change. So if nothing else, apple creates categories (if only to lose them to others - get thrown out of their own parties in a sense
which benefits all the players
Apple has always been about the cult frenzy (often times backed up by products that do justice to the frenzy). Its a good example of how a few can make a louder noise than the masses. Frankly it is welcome (in a weird sense) to see such devotion in a otherwise matter-of-fact world of gadgets
There is however a lot also being written about the chinks in the armour of the iPhone and it will be interesting to see if the fans discover those or if the chinks are but musings from the competition. But with 16m estimated to queue up for the first 1m handsets they might well be forced to buy this….
http://www.mobilemag.com/content/100/337/C12712/
Cheers
Kiranbir
Revolutionary or not, but you have to give it to Steve for the creation of this ‘frenzy’. Such levels of media coverage are a dream for any product launch. And knowing Apple and from the initial reviews of the iPhone, they are more likely to deliver on the promises.
I personally think iPhone will set new standards on user experience with a Smartphone.
And let me say this, iPod was not the first portable mp3 player. There were the Nomads and Rios. And look where iPod is at today. iPod didn’t do anything different than these other mp3 players, what it had was killer looks and an intuitive UI.
And I do think this is going to be a “before iPhone” and “after iPhone” era, atleast for the SmartPhones. I am sure we have seen the last of those ‘QWERTY’ keypads on the Blackberrys’ and Nokias’. And I am not smoking pot
Yes, its strategy 101. Nokia goes for volume, Apple goes for differentiation. Apple does not possess the scale to profit from high volume, but more importantly, it doesn’t want to.
I owns iPhone and it is the best phone I ever used. I was a nokia fan till now. I beleive its not number but the quality makes some thing good.
As phaniraj mentioned there are lots of compaies already provding the features that IPhone poromise to deliver, but can any one compete with the touch screen functionality and intelligent touch screen key pad of IPhone. Most of the features like Email( I think its far better than Blackberry).
Hi,
Just went through your blog and liked it (though I am not a software wiz) but some of the articles are good, specially this IPhone article. What’s more, I have also subsribed, though I find no activity since July last year.
And yes, before I log off, wish you a very happy birthday.
Vikas.
Hmm I think we are missing the point here. I agree the device alone is not disruptive. However the the app distribution and monetization platform is a game changer.
Developing apps for various handsets is painful enough, dealing with operators to get distribution is slow prolonged painful process. The 40-80 % rev share charged by (operators aggregators) has been a damper for innovation in the mobile app space.
SMS stories are nice, but this game is about mass volume.
In comes the app store, apps developed and launched within weeks. 70% rev going to the developers, no middleman. Thousands of apps resulting in a billion downloads in a short period of time.
The iphone itself may not reach out to the bazillion phone users in the world but it sure is acting as a catalyst to bring much needed change in the mobile space. Nokia, palm, blackberry, Verizon, orange, vodaphone, even google, are all now panicking and working on their own app stores and opening up their walled gardens.
The big boys franchise has now become an achievable dream for thousands of entrepreneurs.
I am excited about the future .. and curious as hell to see where this fire flows